Yesterdays gold and silver spot prices

Gold:-0.20 % at USD 1 287.39/oz

Silver:-0.28 % at USD 19.46/oz

Last updated August 29, 2014 GMT

  • End Game Approaching – Jim Sinclair CIGA meeting 1st June 2013

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    “Once gold is free of paper gold, there will be no more smashes”. “What is going on? Transition!”. “How can we have a bear market in futures, and a bull market in physical volume?”.

    I’ve had the pleasure to shake Mr. Sinclairs hand once before. It was August 2011, also in London. At that very day, gold was trading at the famous 1650 level, set out my Jim Sinclair many years back. For their hard work and bravery, two speakers got standing ovations at the GATA event back then, Jim and Andrew Maguire. This time, I had not only the pleasure to shake Jims hand once again, but also the opportunity to ask him a serious question. As I have taken on the role of trying to get as many people out of a collapsing financial system as possible as we approach the End Game, you are also taking a stand against “the dark side of finance”. I asked him if he thought I should be careful. His answer was that there is a reason why the CIGA meetings are not recorded. There is a reason why he doesn’t tell you everything on JSMineset. There is a reason why he doesn’t spell it all out in interviews. Some truths are better told in private settings. The system will collapse on itself, but in the mean time there are powerful forces that will protect the system about to implode.

    There was definitely a sense of urgency in his voice speaking about the End Game. According to Jim Sinclair, the end game will begin when the COMEX defaults. The default will not be a total break down of the COMEX system, but rather, the exchange will settle in cash or the GLD ETF. That is the point where there is no longer a futures market, and the price of gold will be determined as the physical cash price for over the counter coins and bars. At the current rate of decline in the COMEX inventory for delivery, the default day is 30 to 90 days out. That will be the beginning of the emancipation of gold leading to a new system of currencies for global trade. Jim maintains that we’ll see a virtual reserve currency not exchangeable into gold, but set in relation to global M3 and gold. Gold is heading into the new system, not away from it. The end of the futures market for gold will be the beginning of the loss in confidence and the end of QE.

    Jim was very clear on this point: I said “QE to infinity” to get your attention. There is a limit to QE: the loss of confidence. The OTC derivative cancer will have to be written off. Some derivatives will net out, and some will not. That event will take the losing banks to bankruptcy. However, after the Cyprus debacle, bail-ins are now a template for the western financial world. No banks are safe at this point, since their derivates exposures are not transparent. There is no reserves at any FDIC equivalent in any western country. If you have currency on deposit at a bank, you are an unsecured lender to that entity. It is not yours. It never was yours. In fact, the money didn’t exist in the first place. It wasn’t even there.

    “Bank statements are cartoons”, as Jim put it. You are taking 100% risk for a return of what? 1%? 0,5%? “The mattress in not so silly”. After Cyprus, that should be evident to everyone. Before Cyprus, there was “a wall” that couldn’t be breached. Once a banks capital was lost due to financial malpractices, derivates fraud and speculation, that entity was considered bankrupt. Too big to fail bankruptcy led to bail-outs. After Cyprus, that wall of capital no longer protects the depositors. After Cyprus, the failing banks will recapitalize using depositor accounts: bail-ins.

    On top of this, the MF Global breakdown clearly showed that even segregated accounts are not safe anymore. Jim re-emphasized the necessity for long term holders of mining shares to go through the Direct Registration process, or even better, take delivery of paper certificates. When you do this (DRS or paper certificates delivery) you also take away the ability for entities to rehypothicate your shares at levels reaching 40:1. In other words, you shares can no longer be lent out to shorts. Why would you allow shorts to use your own shares agains you?

    “You have to get out of the system. Don’t speculate about the future. The future is here now.”
    - Jim Sinclair

    However, you do need currency for daily transactions. “Currencies are for transactions, and gold is for savings”. You should have cash outside the system on hand for expenditures for 3-6 months. The time to sell your gold, is when your need is greater than your greed. Your need, can only be defined by you. “Need overcomes greed equals the time to sell”. You define need.

    After the reset of the system, you will not have to look for a peak in gold. Gold will be the barometer for world currencies. In other words gold will be the ultimate form of savings as gold reaches the settling plateau. But before then, this gold market, will be “like the 70s on steroids”.

    The timeline, according to Jim, is:

    1. Potential default of the COMEX defined as cash or GLD settlement: 30-90 days out.
    2. The period most likely to be “very uncomfortable”: 2015-2017. During this time there will be a western world financial lock down during a few days, followed by a few weeks up to six months of potential basic supply disruptions.
    3. Totally different world: 2020.

    The new world will have the BRICS and some emerging markets standing, and the western world in a withering state. The new system will be defined not by Washington, London and Brussels, but by the BRICS. China will have the strongest currency in the world. The Euro will survive the US Dollar, but only if the EU moves towards Russia and China. It makes sense to bank “close to, or in the BRICS”. People not having exited the system in the western world will be surfs. Only gold will protect you now.

    Silver will perform, but Sinclair does not see silver getting back to a “historic ratio” and does not see the historic gold/silver ratio to be any useful indicator of a target price for silver. He does not see a monetary role for silver in the new system. Having said that, people will still perceive the poor mans gold to be as gold. That fact will make silver perform, but silver will perform on the merits of gold.

    A question was asked about Bitcoins. Jims reply, clearly stating that he didn’t own any or would never buy them, was “Bitcoin confirms a lot what we believe”. In other words, Bitcoins prove that the market wants currency alternatives. Jim prefers gold.

    Jim spoke for six hours with only a few brakes, a considerable performance at any age. To sum it all up is next to impossible. To me, the take-away is really: “Don’t speculate about the future. The future is here now. Get out of the system”.

    To Jim and to the fine CIGA people at JSMineSet.com: Thank you, from the bottom of my heart.

    On a personal note, after the meeting I left London for Cyprus. Talking to business owners on that beautiful island in the Mediterranean was an invaluable education. Cyprus is a cash only market. What I learned on Cyprus will have to be a topic for another blog post here at RealMoneyTracker.com.

    Posted on June 16, 2013 in Gold & Silver | Leave a comment
  • 2012 Price Predictions for Gold and Silver

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    Dear RealMoneyTracker.com friends and followers of the white and yellow metals, first, let us wish you a happy and prosperous year of the Dragon. In the Chinese zodiac, the Dragon is considered the luckiest of all animals, and looking at the charts for both metals in january 2012, we’re off to a good start.

    As you all know 2011 was a very volatile year. Silver headed off and rushed to approximately 48 USD/oz before it fell off the cliff back in early May. Gold broke seasonal trends and had its greatest move during the summer and surpassed the 1900 USD/oz mark before it too fell off in September. Silver continued to fall during the last quarter and fell as low as almost 26 USD/oz, a staggering -45% move from its 2011 high. Bulls who played the leveraged short term markets did not get very good sleep. If the bulls dominated the first half of the year, the bears certainly showed muscle during the second.

    Of course, it’s never fun to see your metals go down in price, but you have to keep in mind that the long term trend looking at the 10 year chart, or even a 5 year chart, hasn’t changed. The trends are still intact for both metals. Gold touched and briefly traded below its 200 day moving average which gold has done a few times during the 11 year bull market. Buying physical metal at or below the 200 day moving average represent an excellent point of entry into the market, or a fantastic opportunity to add to positions acquiring more gold at a relatively cheap price. Dips like we saw in 2011 must be considered gifts. Those of you who bought more gold in late 2008 blow the 200 day moving average have done extraordinarily well more than doubling your money. Nothing moves only up without taking a breather to the downside. These dips should be taken advantage of by long term bulls. Now, when writing this in mid February 2012, gold has just recently (late January) broken above the 200 day moving average line. We could definitely see another move below as we saw in 2008, if that happens, it’s an excellent time to buy more.

    Gold 10 year chart with 200 day moving average, from February 15th 2012:

    To study the 10 year, or 5 year, gold chart with golds 200 day moving average, use the RealMoneyTracker.com charts updated daily.

    So, here we are. More than six weeks have passed of the new Gregorian year and we look ahead now into 2012 for both metals. We’ve been listening and reading carefully what gold and silver experts have had to say about the two metals for 2012 during the last six weeks. Four your conveniences we’ve compiled a table listing what the experts say.

    Expert/Institution Silver Gold Comment Source
    Barclays 2000 During second quarter Watch
    Ben Davies 50 1800 Silver: ”higher highs”. Gold: +15%(?) Listen
    Bill Murphy 75 Listen
    Chris Marchese 62,5 2435 Silver: 60-65. Gold: 2250-2600 Private conversation
    Commerzbank 1900 Read (in Swedish)
    David Morgan 60 2500 Gold: 2400-2600 Watch, Listen
    Duet Commodities Fund 2500 Read
    Egon von Greyerz 60 4000 Gold: 3000-5000 Read, Read
    Eric Sprott 50 2000 Silver: Above 50. Gold: ”north of 2000” Read
    Goldman Sachs 1940 Read
    James Dines 1900 Gold: ”New highs” Listen
    James Turk 70 2500 Gold: 2000-3000 Read, Watch, Listen
    Jim Rickards 1900 For 2013-2014: 3000-5000 Read
    Jim Sinclair 2000 ”1900-2100 or more” Read, Listen
    John Embry 56 2500 Silver: +100%. Gold: +60% Read, Read, Read
    John Hathaway 48 1900 ”New highs” Read
    Keith Barron 50 2250 ”Gold: 2000-2500” Read
    Michael Pento 2200 Watch
    Morgan Stanley 2175 ”By 2013” Read
    Nick Barisheff 2250 Listen
    Peter Grandich 1900 “New highs” Read, Listen, Watch
    Peter Schiff 2500 ”Above 2500” Read
    Rick Rule 2200 Read
    Rob McEwen 50 2000 ”Above 50 and 2000” Read
    Stepen Leeb 80 2750 Silver: 60-100. Gold 2500-3000 Read, Read, Read, Read
    UBS 2050 Gold: ”will average at 2050” Read
    Average: 59,29 2242
    Average gain in %: 112,36% 43,09%
    2012-01-02 prices: 27,92 1566,8

    Worth noting is that the major banks now have joined the bulls predicting higher prices for gold. In our mind, this is a huge change. The major banks have remained bearish on the metals all throughout this bull market, at least officially. Does this mean they will now start recommending the yellow metal to their clients? Perhaps, perhaps not. To us this could signal the next phase in the bull market where the metals becomes a main stream investment, gold first, then silver.

    Granted, we’ve only included price predictions from gold and silver bulls, and no bears. Why? Because the bears have been constantly wrong for the last 11 years, so we see no reason to listen to bears UNTIL the bulls named above turn into bears. Until then, our outlook will not change. Until central banks start raising interest rates and stop their insanely vast money printing schemes, the bulls will remain bulls since gold and silver are money, the only form of money that cannot be printed. Not to mention that the entire financial system is insolvent, sovereign nations are on the brink of bankruptcy, and the derivatives bubble north of 1000 trillion dollars keeps expanding etc etc. The more they print, the higher the prices for gold and silver. Having said that, looks like we’ll have yet another great year for gold and silver.

    As you can see the average price targets above are for silver just shy of 60 USD/oz and for gold slightly above 2200 which matches my own targets for the end of 2011. Clearly I was too bullish in in late August last year which goes to show how important it is to be in this market long term. I remain very bullish as the gentlemen above for reasons explained many times on this blog and elsewhere.

    May your fortunes grow and the year of the Dragon bring you much luck. For gold and silver, luck will not be needed.

    Best Regards
    /Johnny Mellgren and the RealMoneyTracker.com team

    Posted on February 15, 2012 in Gold & Silver | 18 Comments
  • New features at RealMoneyTracker.com

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    First of all we’ve done a new design for the website. Now everything looks even nicer, at least we think so. Since launch we’ve collected comments from our users provided us through our feedback function that we encourage you to use (see the little feedback tab to your left). Thank you so much for all your neat ideas. Some of them we’ve been able to realize for you, but not all of them. Other features are still on our to-do-list. Here’s what we’ve done in this release:

    Security and improved anonymity!

    Since many gold and silver savers have taken the red pill and see through government and main stream media lies, some of us are rather paranoid about internet anonymity. What ever uncle gives, uncle can take away, as Jim Sinclair often says. So, we’ve listened to your feedback and now we’ve enabled HTTPS when singed in. This means that all data is encrypted. Also, when you sign up we also explain that we do not track any IP addresses or use any statistics tools such as Google Analytics (when signed in).

    No ads!

    Yes… we’ve taken all the annoying ads away. This of course means no revenue for us, but money isn’t everything. :) Removing the ads we had to the right allowed us to increase the size of the graphs, so that was a big plus.

    Even cooler graphs!

    We’ve done many changes to the graphs at RealMoneyTracker.com. We’re especially proud of the fact that our charts now can show you moving averages (10, 20, 30, 50, 200 days and 1 year) and that you can now adjust for inflation using many different matrices like M1, M2 and True Money Supply. Even the Big Mac Index! LOL! You guys know how much Ben Bernanke and his ilk prints, so measuring old all time highs in todays dollars really doesn’t make much sense.Play around with the charts and just look how much we’ve got to go before any REAL new all time highs are achieved.

    Changes to Your savings and Manage savings (when signed in)

    When you look at your personal graph in the your savings view, we now plot gold and silver purchases on the dates you entered in the manage savings view. So if you did a big buy at some point the little dot representing your purchase tells you that’s why your savings went up so much on that date.

    We’ve also added annualized gain/loss calculations to both the your savings view and the manage savings view.

    We’ve also updated the give us feedback function, so please, let us know your thoughts so we can make RealMoneyTracker.com kick more ass!

    Best Regards /RealMoneyTracker.com web team

    Posted on February 6, 2012 in About RealMoneyTracker.com | 1 Comment
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